Now, after yesterday's report that the main market analyst at China's Caixin Market News and Analysis reports that he is convinced of a 40% devaluation of the Japanese yen is imminent and inevitable, here comes another report hot on the heels from the United States.
Japan is on an unsustainable path of a strong yen and deflation. The unprofitability of Japan's major exporters and emerging trade deficits suggest that the end of this path is in sight. The transition from a strong to weak yen will likely be abrupt, involving a sudden and big devaluation of 30% to 40%.
It will be a big shock to Japan's neighbors and its distant competitors like Germany. The yen's devaluation in 1996 was a main factor in triggering the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan's neighbors must have a strong banking system to withstand a bigger devaluation of the yen.Japan's nominal gross domestic product contracted 8% in the four years to the third quarter of 2011, and six percentage points of that was due to deflation. Without increased government expenditure, the contraction will be one percentage point more. Japan has not seen this kind of sustained deflation since the 1930s.
Without government deficits, Japan's economy will decline much more. Central government bonds and borrowings plus its guaranteed debts rose by 116.3 trillion yen ($1.4 trillion) during the period, equivalent to one-fourth of the level of the nominal GDP in the third quarter of 2011. If Japan had adopted balanced budgets, its economy would have contracted two to three times more. This will lead to a debt crisis in its private sector.
If you are living in Japan then it is time right now to get your house in order.
1) Stop using credit cards immediately 2) Get out of debt immediately 3) Store up at least three months (six months preferably) of food and water to get over the coming financial shock 4) Protect your wealth by obtaining physical gold and silver
These warnings about Japan's collapse have been coming louder and louder and more often over these past two months. The crash that was predicted by Karl Bass and reported here in Debt in Japan Actually 492% of GDP! UK 497% of GDP!:
...People going along, as usual, in their ignorant bliss. The "leaders" knowing full well what's going on but trying to get out with what they can, while they can! The only difference between the sinking ship and the economy is there won't be any rescue coming for us.
While the entire world watches Greece and Italy, it seems, from looking at this chart, the real action is the UK, Japan, Spain and France.
Business, government and household debt in Japan show a 492% of GDP problem for Japan. The tax and spend days are coming to an end soon in Europe, the USA and, of course, in Japan.
This entire house of cards is going to collapse around our heads. When the collapse does come, it will come suddenly. Hope you have cash readily available and at least a few weeks of food and water ready. Because when the crash does come, stores will be empty in a matter if a few hours - if it takes that long.
"Life is really simple, but we insist on making it complicated." - Confucious
The Chinese have some really great, ancient quotes. "May you live in interesting times" is probably my favorite. It sounds like a wish for good fortune, but it's not. It's a curse. It's a wish for terrible things. When I was young (and much stupider than I am now), when I first heard, "May you live in interesting times", I thought it meant having fun. I thought it was "interesting" as in "going to see an interesting concert" or "watching a very exciting and interesting movie." I heard this statement and thought, "Yeah! Way to go, baby! Those Chinese know how to paaaaartay! That sounds fun!"
Great Chinese philosopher dude: smart man or wise ass? (See? If you look closely, he's actually smirking!)
Parties? Drinking? Having Fun? Meeting girls? That's sounds interesting to me. It wasn't until years later that I fully understood that when these Chinese wise men say, "interesting" and I say, "interesting" we are talking about two totally different things.
"Show me a young Conservative and I'll show you someone with no heart. Show me an old Liberal and I'll show you someone with no brains." - Winston Churchill
But, you know what? As you get older, you do realize how this knife cuts both ways. I'll bet that, if you were Polish in 1939, French in 1940, or Russian in 1941; or a German or Japanese citizen living in a big industrial city in 1944 or 1945 and being bombed every night, those were real interesting times.
I'm sure living in this neighborhood around the time this tank drove by was a real hootenanny! A regular Shindig!
Of course, throughout history there are millions of examples of interesting times... The black plague, the fall of Rome, the potato famine, the Great Depression, just to name a few... Heck, how about today? Today, there's more interesting things going on than you could shake a stick at: how about Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Somalia, Burma... And let's not leave out the United States! How about being one of almost 46 million people on food stamps or one of the more than 25% of all American children living under the poverty line or the more than 15% of all Japanese who can say the same?
There's so many people and places that are living through such interesting times that I can't even list them up! I'll bet wondering if you'll have food or electricity or even live until tomorrow is real interesting for those folks...
"Paaaaaaar-tay!"
Yeah. Those all sound like real fun, eh? Real interesting every day and night. A real barrel of laughs.
"May you live in interesting times."
Even though this quote is customarily attributed to the Chinese, the origins of this quote seem to be in question in some quarters. Some English scholars claim that since there is no written record of the original of this quote in Chinese, then the origins of this as being Chinese are highly questionable. I think that is nonsense.
To be totally anal-retentive (like these scholars): Chinese culture is over 4,000 years old. The first records of writing in China are 1,200 years old. Some argue that most parts of the bible many use were written in the last 800 years. So to claim that the quote, "May you live in interesting times" - whose origins have been attributed to China for years (other old non-English speaking societies also attribute this to China) - is not Chinese seems silly and pointless to me.
Who cares if you are living in such interesting times that you are worried about your skin or where you will sleep that night, what you are your children will eat, or if you are even going to wake up tomorrow?
There is, though, unarguable proof of another ancient Chinese quote that I believe is the root of this saying. That quote goes like this:
"It's better to be a dog in a peaceful time than be a man in a chaotic period."
If you can speak more than one language than I imagine that you can see how, "May you live in interesting times" and, "It's better to be a dog in a peaceful time than be a man in a chaotic period" Could have the same roots, or even be the same statement; or even be kissing cousins.
Anyway, does it matter?
Louis Armstong seems to be a guy who had a good time and a positive attitude all the time.
As Louis Armstrong would say, "You say eether, I say eyether... Let's call the whole thing off."
Yeah. What difference does it make? May you live in interesting times is most certainly a curse. It doesn't seem like it at first, and probably wouldn't to a young person, under 30... But when you get past 40 and you have kids and a lot of bills to pay and things to worry about, you certainly don't need more "interesting things" on your plate to worry about.
Damn Chinese! How could they have been so stinking smart so many years ago?
Now, at 54, I don't want things to be too interesting anymore. A little bit is fine, but not too much. I don't want to fear or want too much. I don't want things to be too interesting.
I want to go to work everyday and do some work. I want to have everyone understand what it is that were supposed to be doing and everyone to be productive and happy people. I don't want to go to work and find out that the company is nearing bankruptcy. I don't want to go to work and hear Mr. Fujita and Mr. Morimoto fighting like squalling little children. I don't want to find out that our accountant has stolen company money and taken off to Thailand with the president's secretary (even though, with her, I'd think about doing that too!)
Writer's rendition of the perfect sexy Japanese secretary
No. I don't want these interesting things happening to me. They can happen to other people. I don't care. But not to me. I want things to be boring and the same.
After work, I want to come home and eat dinner and relax. I don't want to head home and have the trains stop because of an accident due to someone committing suicide or a train crash. I don't want to come home and find out that the roof leaks, the car needs repair, people from the government tax office are coming over tomorrow, the neighbors are getting a divorce or that there was a fire down the street.
Sometimes, after work, I want to go have drinks with my friends. I want to go to the restaurant and eat nice food and laugh. I don't want to see people fight or fall down in the road dead drunk (especially if it's me). I don't want to come home and wake up with food poisoning in the middle of the night or with a hellacious hangover the next day either.
Crisis? What crisis?
I want to spend weekends with the kids and family, if I can. It's okay to work on weekends, we all gotta work, but I don't want to work all the time. I want to wake up early on Saturday, write some boring blog posts (like this one), take out the boring trash, cook some boring breakfast and then take the family to someplace boring that they will have fun at (and I will probably think is pretty boring)... Spending time with the family is not risky, scary or dangerous. It's not supposed to be. Nope. It's boring and relaxing. I want to do that every weekend. I want things to be boring and the same.
I want to go on vacations with the wife and kids. I want the flights to be boring and safe and not to be hassled at the airport. I don't want the airport people asking me too many questions; I don't want too much turbulence on the flight; I don't want the plane to crash and I certainly don't want to be in the hotel when there is a fire. I want the swimming pool at the hotel to be clean and not too cold. I don't want anyone stealing our towels or breaking into our hotel room or my house back in Japan when I'm away.
In many ways, I want things to be boring and the same.
I want to have a good job, a roof over our heads, warmth, security and clean food and water. I want to enjoy life and maybe have some fun along the way.
I most certainly don't want anyone, smirking Chinese philosophers especially, saying to me, "May you live in interesting times." This year is shaping up to be enough "interesting" for a lifetime.
Today? Have a good day. Be kind to those along the way and smile. Hug your kids (or parents) and stay alert.
Tomorrow portends to be another interesting day. Have a great one!
It's been written on these pages since the beginning of 2011: Groupon has BIG trouble. Now, with events in Greece completely throwing a wrench into the Eurozone and markets, it looks like Groupon could suffer greatly from events in Athens. It must be confirmed by the latest news today: There must be crisis in the EU and the Groupon boardroom bordering on a full-blown panic.
Nov. 1, 2011. Two days before Groupon pricing Dow Jones
drops nearly 2.5%... Situation in Europe up in the air.
Groupon must IPO. Their situation is getting serious. They have yet to turn a profit and, if the books were closed today, they'd be over $221.7 million dollars in the red. Groupon is running out of cash.
Groupon remains unprofitable. The company had $243.9 million in cash at the end of September and still owed merchants $465.6 million. The 8.4 percent increase in cash from the prior period was outstripped by the rise in marketing costs, which jumped 37 percent to $234.4 million.
The company has used 85 percent of the $1.11 billion it has raised from venture capitalists and other investors to buy equity from early investors eager for a return, instead of funding growth. That is contributing to a potential cash crunch, said Sam Hamadeh, chief executive officer of PrivCo, which provides financial data on more than 20,000 private companies. With two days to go until IPO and the stock market's crashing worldwide, then Groupon must be in a panic... If not, then the stuff they were smoking when they rejected the $6 billion dollar offer from Google must be really killer weed!
Monday morning (Sunday for most people who read this blog). I've got a ton of things to do but here's a few things I've been thinking about... Especially how, even a few days after press release, you can see proof of how messed up a company Linkedin Japan is. Linkedin Japan is a FAIL!
First up, though, before the bashing begins, for your enjoyment, a very cool video Mash-up by Hexstatic of Nancy Sinatra's sixties smash hit "These Boots Were Made For Walking"
The picture in Greece, whose troubles kicked off the crisis almost two years ago, is bleaker than ever. A new report from Athens' international debt inspectors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund -- proved that a preliminary deal for a second package of rescue loans reached in July is already obsolete.
The report showed that in the past three months Greece's economic situation has deteriorated so dramatically that for the bank deal to remain in place, the official sector would have to provide some euro252 billion ($347 billion) in loans. Alternatively, to keep official loans at euro109 billion ($150 billion), banks would have to accept cuts of about 60 percent to the value of their Greek bonds.
….
100 Million Euros is insufficient. The IMF pegged the amount between 100 million and 200 million. There is absolutely no reason to suspect the minimum is needed. Indeed, there is every reason to expect 400 million euros is insufficient.
….
I believe 400 million Euros will prove way insufficient once Portugal, then Spain, then Italy get into trouble.
Like I said, I think we could see the bankruptcy of Greece any day now. If that happens, all bets are off and it's every man (family) for itself. I think people would be wise to draw out a good sum of money from the banks and have it at home for a few weeks just to be safe until we can see what is going to happen. I fear a "bank holiday" where it might not be possible to withdraw money (or possibly even use credit cards) from banks for a few days or even a week or two (or more?)
I always follow my own advice and I think I've done pretty well. I always mess up dates, though... But I predicted a bad situation in Autumn on 2011 and, well, here it is, autumn. Please refer to: Japan's Financial Armageddon is Coming in 60 Days?
I warned people in October of 2008 to buy gold and silver and to stock up on food (click the links for proof). At that time, gold was $724.08 an ounce (today gold is $1562.30) and silver was $9.11 an ounce (today silver stands at $47.40).
If you had taken my advice, you would have easily more than doubled your investment in gold and taken over a 520% profit on silver. It's still not too late to get into gold and silver but a price correction is coming so wait a bit.* There will be no price correction on food. Stock up now, while you can.
After the big Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, when the stores shelves were bare for a week or so (and no one knew at the time how things were going to turn out on the food and water situation) my family was fine; we had 6 months of food and water, enough for 5 people, stocked up and ready to go. When people panicked and ran away from Tokyo or when they were fighting for parking spaces at the local grocery store, or fighting for bottles of water, I only watched and shook my head in disbelief.
How can people be so gullible and foolish? How can people be so negligent and irresponsible not to be prepared?
…..
Let me give you fair warning again. Especially if you live in Japan:
1) Store up enough water for at least 2 months (6 months preferable)
2) Fill your bathtub with water every night (if water stops you can use for cleaning)
3) Today or this week, buy at least 2 months of canned food (6 months preferable)
4) It is still not too late! Start saving money every month by buying gold and silver. If you have some savings, take 33% of it out of the bank and buy gold. Take the other 33% and keep it at safe place at home.
It looks like we are headed for some really rough times. Better be prepared to stay out of the way.
The point I am ultimately making is that of course no one can predict the future but just because of that fact not being prepared is just plain foolish. I'm sure that there were many people in Tohoku before the earthquake and tsunami who could make the same claim that "No one could have predicted the future" so that's why many did not have food or water or the means to escape (same as many in Tokyo)... But this is not about predicting the future, this is about protecting yourselves and your family.
If you think this is about predicting the future, then use that same logic next time you buy auto, car, fire or life insurance. Don't need them, right? No one can predict the future.
While I mention Greece, another curious thing about the situation there is that it is not being mentioned on the MSM. There's lots about demonstrations in the USA, where things are peaceful for the most part, but in places like Greece, where the sh*t is about to hit the fan? Not a peep.
I had been looking at many videos on Youtube and others showing some very heavy fighting between rioters and police. I wish I would have bookmarked them. This one, though, give a good idea. This is not a friendly party.
The most worrisome point about the situation in Greece is that the government needs the police and military to stand by them to protect them from and increasingly angry and militant civilian gathering, yet, at the same time, even the Greek police and civil servants are furious about getting pay cuts and massive slashes to their pensions. I wonder how long until they switch sides?
What would that mean for Greece and the other countries in immediate danger (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland?)
And, finally, I see the ridiculous announcement from Linkedin that they finally "launched their Japanese site". Well, that's one big strike against them; they're lying. The service was actually launched sometime before May of 2010.
How to correctly handle a new product or service release? (in Japan)
A new company/product/service will need to appoint somebody in Japan to handle PR for them in Japan and work with that company to make a plan.
A necessary part of any good plan of attack would be that the representatives in Japan arrange meetings with major media at least 1 - 2 weeks before Japanese release day, as pre-press release. This is critical.
If this sort of ground-work is not fully prepared by the company and their reps in Japan, I strongly suggest that the company postpone the release of the product/service (and fire their representatives and hire a competent company) and then get properly prepared. If this sort of pre-press release is done correctly, the Japanese media will then follow-up and prepare and study the circumstances of the product/service and company so that they may be able to publish and provide better information for the Japanese audience (don't forget that the Japanese media are competing with each other, too, to provide up-to-date concise information, so this has to be done. No short-cuts here). This is critical for the success of any new company in Japan.
Even after years of repeated failures byvarious companies, to this very day, foreign companies come to Japan and repeat the mistakes Pepsi Cola and Seven-Up made decades ago. Some recent examples are Linkedin; E-Bay Japan, Google.jp, and a few others. (I strongly suspect Sugarsync is about to make the same mistake too!)
Take, for example, Linked-in. Linked-in came out with a Japanese version quite a while back but no one here in Japan uses it because no one knows about it; they had no local representation; no pre-press release information.
Kind of shocking, when you think about it; a supposedly forward thinking company coming to Japan and making such an amateurish mistake.
Well, Linkedin made that mistake. I also am quite familiar with this as I wrote a letter to Linkedin twice in early 2010 offering them a partnership with some companies that suggested tying up with Sony and placing the Linkedin software with all new Vaio computers sold. I sent them the letter twice. Twice, no response. Chuckle. Now, they've realized almost 1.5 years later that no one uses their Japanese language product (and probably won't). They blew a golden opportunity to tie up with one of the biggest companies in Japan... Now, what are they going to do?
You don't penetrate the Japanese market on the cheap and you usually have only one chance to get it right.
Let me make a prediction that I will stand by completely: Linkedin Japan will be a flop and failure along the lines of E-Bay in Japan.
Well, it's the start of another week. Keep positive. Write down your goals and smile.
耳のないウサギは非常に珍しいですか？ 違います。世界中からの耳のないウサギの写真集! I posted yesterday morning about the panic that is growing about an earless rabbit being found near Fukushima. I predicted that it was going to get much worse. I was right. Last night, I even saw an advertisement for a gossip magazine on the subway that talked about the rabbit. (Ha! Blog beats old school mass media - again!)
Well, for your edification, here is a blog post that should blast this nonsense out of the water. It is replete with photos of earless rabbits and links to articles from all over the world since 2003. Earless rabbits are not all that rare of an occurrence! After reading this post and examining the evidence, if you still believe that the earless rabbit born in Japan was definitely born that way due to radiation, then I have a 200 acre, rabbit farm on prime ocean property (with a bridge) to sell you.
I've done more research and found that earless rabbits are much more common than even I thought. In fact, they are not all that rare at all. Here's proof with links and photos mostly from a rabbit breeders association in the UK.
The fact is that earless rabbits, while sometimes rare, are actually not all that unknown. Here's an article about an earless rabbit that pulled at the heart-strings of the readers of a a famous UK newspaper. He was introduced in What's Up Doc? Meet Vincent the Rabbit Born Without Ears.
Should an earless rabbit (due to overgrooming by the mother when it is a kit) be culled by breeders as " When breeding, you have to cut out the bad ones" ?
Notice that this debate was also going on, amongst breeders I assume, at another forum.
Later on in the very same forum thread. There is this (entry #6):
Meet Rosie a gorgeous little earless tri coloured Dutch whose ears were chewed off at birth. She has been coming here on her holidays now for over 2 years and is gorgeous, she is no different to any other rabbit apart from her ears and this doesn't seem to impede her in any way so my answer is a definite NO. She also came from a rescue(where she was born) and her owner picked her because she was different to all the other buns.
Rosie - UK earless rabbit 2009
The evidence is strong that the baby rabbit is question near Fukushima is earless because of over grooming by its mother. Baby rabbits are born underground where they stay for at least a month. Here is information about the interesting breeding habits and bizarre occurrences of birthing of rabbits:
The popular notion of the rabbit's breeding capacity is not exaggerated, for it is possible for a doe to produce a litter of three to six young every month. However, this rarely happens, as over half of the young conceived die before they are born, and are reabsorbed back into the mother's body. As I said above the average production rate is about 10 live young per year.
The young rabbits are born below ground, deaf, blind and without fur. The doe visits her stop once a day to suckle the young and when she leaves she blocks the entrance to conserve heat and as a safeguard against enemies. Within a month the young are capable of looking after themselves.
This means that we do not know what happened with the baby rabbit in question during that first few weeks or so when that baby rabbit was underground. Also, did you catch that part where it said; over half of the young conceived die before they are born, and are reabsorbed back into the mother's body. Bizarre! We do not know of the early days of this earless rabbit, we only know that when it did appear from the hutch it was earless.
And there's much much more! Here's an actual want ad from the UK Daily Echo newspaper on October 17, 2009 about a person who found, not one, but two earless rabbits and is looking for a home for them:
TWO rabbits are looking for new homes after being found callously dumped at the side of a Hampshire road.
They might not have long ears but they are gorgeous nonetheless.
Holly, a grey-coloured female and Vincent, a white male, were found running loose in a lay-by. Their carrying cage was found nearby with the door open. A third large tan and white lop type managed to escape.
Both of the Himalayan – type rabbits are missing their ears but it is not known whether this is a birth defect or whether someone has cut them off.
Using this information that we know to be facts, it is very hard to believe that the earless rabbit born in Namie near Fukushima was born earless due to its mother eating irradiated grass. In fact, it stretches the imagination to even entertain the thought.
Earless rabbit, Japan, 2011
One earless rabbit does not make a nuclear crisis.... Though one will do nicely to create a panic!
